THE FORECAST

The news just moved. Here’s why.

Prediction markets reprice when something real changes.
We track the biggest swings in news events in the last
24 hours and tell you what happened.

Updated every 3 hours. No noise. No commentary. Just signal.

  1. 1 +63.1pp
    71%Yes

    Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

    Iran International reported that the Assembly of Experts, under heavy pressure from the Revolutionary Guards, actually elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, turning speculation into a reported fait accompli.

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  2. 2 50.5pp
    13%Yes

    Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3?

    Bitcoin's price rose back above $68,000 on Monday largely because traders who had bet the price would fall were forced to quickly buy back Bitcoin to cut their losses, creating a fast but potentially fragile rally.

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  3. 3 23.5pp
    42%Yes

    Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

    Qatar has been on the receiving end of Iranian missile and drone attacks on its civilian infrastructure, including its international airport, making it a victim in this conflict rather than an aggressor likely to strike Iran.

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  4. 4 +19.9pp
    83%Yes

    Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

    The trial starting on March 3, 2026 put Musk in the spotlight as a witness, likely generating a surge in his tweeting activity as he responded to coverage and commentary about the case.

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  5. 5 16.4pp
    6%Yes

    Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

    Arafi was appointed to the temporary three-member council that governs Iran during the transition, but this role is strictly short-term and does not make him a frontrunner to become the permanent Supreme Leader.

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  6. 6 14.0pp
    36%Yes

    US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

    The US and Israel launched major military strikes on Iran over the weekend, turning what was a diplomatic dispute into an active regional war, making a ceasefire by March 31 far less likely.

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  7. 7 13.5pp
    48%Yes

    Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?

    Gulf states are publicly calling for restraint and unity rather than rushing into war, with Qatar's former prime minister explicitly warning against being "dragged into a direct confrontation with Iran," which signals they are hesitating to strike.

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  8. 8 12.9pp
    21%Yes

    Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

    France, Germany, and the UK all explicitly stated they did not participate in the US-Israel strikes on Iran, making it much less likely they would launch their own independent attack.

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  9. 9 +11.5pp
    75%Yes

    Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

    The US and Israel launched a full-scale military campaign against Iran starting February 28, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and conducting ongoing airstrikes, making it clear that a major strike on Iran had already happened and was continuing.

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  10. 10 +10.1pp
    83%Yes

    Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

    The market is asking whether Iran will strike Israel on March 3, and the news confirms that active strikes and counter-strikes between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. were already happening on that exact date, making a "Yes" resolution nearly certain.

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